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Hugo in HTO Trading,

EURUSD: Testing the 10-week moving average

Since the start of the year the currency gained more than 4.0% however last week fell more than 0.5% and also last week made a phase change, going from a bullish to a warning phase.

Last week the EURUSD fell with a narrow range and close near the low of the week, in addition managed to close below the previous week low, suggesting a strong bearish momentum.

Stochastic is showing bearish momentum although is still above the 50 mid line.

Expecting a downward move to the 50-week moving average at 1.1091 on a break below the previous week low at 1.1283 (scenario 1) and a bounce from the 50-week moving average at 1.1091 could push the currency up to the weekly resistance at 1.1312 (scenario 2).