The U.S. aims to extend its best stretch of job creation since 2006 and a host of economic bellwethers suggest hiring remained strong in August. Job openings are up, layoffs are down and most industries putting out for-help signs. Is the economy really about to turn the corner? Or do the steady gains in hiring still mask underlying problems? Read on. Stretching the streak The economy has generated at least 200,000 jobs a month for six straight months, the first time that’s happened since 1997 when the U.S. hit the mark seven straight times. In August, experts polled by MarketWatch forecast a net gain of 228,000, up from a preliminary 209,000 in July. The last time the economy posted an even better streak was in 1993-1995, when employment topped 200,000 for 19 straight months in the early stages of what would become a tech and Internet-driven boom. If only ... Initial misimpressions All hiring streaks come to an end. Don’t be surprised if the initial estimate of job gains in August falls short of Wall Street’s forecast. It might even drop below 200,000 for the first time since January. How come? Large but temporary swings during the summer in the job status of certain employees such as auto workers or teachers can skew seasonal adjustments in the employment report. August is especially tricky because fewer households fill out their surveys compared to almost any other month. The difference between the government’s first and third estimates of job growth has averaged a whopping 77,000 in August over the past five years. This way and that The odds that hiring in August might fall below expectations grew after large payroll processor ADP reported a 204,000 increase in private-sector jobs. That was less than 215,000 Wall Street forecast and reflected the smallest gain in five months. Yet other indicators point to an even faster pace of hiring. A pair of employment indexes produced by the Institute for Supply Management are at or near multi-year highs. The combined strength of these ISM indexes tends to correlate very strongly historically with U.S. employment growth. Smaller unemployment line The unemployment rate rose a tick in July to 6.2% to mark the first increase in February. Start of a new trend? Doubtful. Economists polled by MarketWatch predict the rate will drop back to 6.1% again and move lower over the next year. The unemployment rate has fallen steadily over the past few years in large part because people dropped out of the labor force. Now economists believe faster job creation is the driving force. If they’re right, the nation's low labor-force participation rate (62.9%) should start to stabilize or even rise as more people begin to look for work again. Follow the money The pickup in hiring still hasn’t triggered a big increase in average hourly wages, even though there’s been a greater shift in 2014 toward higher-paying jobs compared to the prior year. The economy can’t grow a heckuva lot faster unless workers are earning more — and spending more. Experts continue to predict wages will rise as the labor market tightens, but so far it hasn’t happened. The average hourly pay of American workers has risen about 2% a year since 2010, a rate it’s held this year. In August, hourly wages are forecast to rise a modest 0.2%.via marketwatch