Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
All posts from Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
Arcángel de Jesús Montoya in Money Trafficking,

Here Is A Quick And Simple Trade In NVIDIA Post-Earnings

Who could expect NVIDIA's stock to jump 15% today? While it is true that positive earnings results are exciting, NVIDIA, let alone most other companies, does not typically seem to show such swift moves, according to historical data (although the stock is quite volatile in nature):

Moreover, it seems to move a lot after earnings announcements over the next week or so (just look at the gaps!). Therefore, I am strongly convinced that the stock will move swiftly over the next week or month. I also noticed that the options do not reflect this possibility - they are too cheap:

(Source: Google Finance

 As you can see, the May 20 straddles are currently trading at around 4% of the underlying (an annualized volatility of only 28%)! Hence, if you believe that the stock will move more than this next week, go ahead and buy the straddle as the market opens on Monday. The risk-return profile of this trade is quite appealing.

However, I want to make sure I limit my losses in the event the stock does not move much. Hence, I am eyeing a reverse iron condor. Essentially, this is a strategy when one buys a straddle and sells a strangles, thus limiting profits but cutting down costs. Here is the trade and its risk-return profile:


With this trade, I essentially get a 1.3:1 risk-return opportunity (maximum return of $168 per contract with a risk of $132 per contract). Although the proportion is not sexy by itself, the probability of being correct is quite high here given the obvious mispricing of the options. Hence, I am willing to risk my capital with this trade.

What do you think of it?