Fan Yang
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Kuroda announces long-awaited stimulus package; market is unimpressed

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been long expected to expand stimulus measures. However bank governor, Abe Kuroda has disappointed in the past few BoJ meetings. While he did talk about adding stimulus in general, the lack of detail and guidance left the market anxious. Today, we finally get details from Kuroda, but the market didn't seem to care. 

Here is a summary of the announcement:

  • fiscal measures total JPY 13.5trln
  • JPY 7.5trln in national/local govt spending
  • JPY 6 trln in fiscal investment and loans
  • Govt expects the measures to push up real GDP by 1.3% in near term



- You would normally expect the market to sell the yen when the currency base is about to expand. 
- However, if the market expected a stronger stimulus measure, the yen might remain resilient. This appears to be the case. 

USD/JPY 1H Chart 8/2

(click to enlarge)

- The Japanese Yen is gaining against the US dollar as well as most other majors after the BoJ's stimulus announcement.
- The USD/JPY was working on a mini-price bottom, but crashed below the consolidation after the BoJ announcement. 
- I think the pair can potentially revisit the lows between roughly 99 and 100 (refer to the 4H chart).

Trade Idea:
- To me, the USD/JPY has flattened in the medium-term after a previous bearish run from mid-2015 to mid-2016.
- If the market approaches the 100 handle, look for the market to stall. 
- If the USD/JPY does stall around 100, I would consider buying with a viable target to 105.50 and an aggressive target to the 107.50-108 area. 

USD/JPY 4H Chart 8/2

(click to enlarge)