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GBP/JPY at Key Consolidation Resistance

GBP/JPY has been choppy, but slightly bullish during 2015, as we can see in the daily chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart 11/17

(click to enlarge)

We can see that price retreated after failing to push above 196.00 in June. It fell to almost 180.30 in September, and has since been in consolidation mode between that 180.30 support and resistance in the 188-188.25 area. 

October and November's price action has been a relatively slow crawl from the support area to the resistance area of the current medium-term consolidation. Also note that price is testing the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

In a purely sideways medium-term market, we can expect at least a bearish attempt from resistance towards the middle of the consolidation range, which is around 184. 184 is also a key support/resistance pivot within the consolidation range. 

A break above 188.30 on the other hand, suggests that bulls are back in charge, and opens up the highs on the year in the 195-196 area. Within this bullish outlook, there is still downside risk back towards the 184 level, but price should not fall below this level. If it does, we should reign in the bullish outlook and consider GBP/JPY still in consolidation.