Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Climbing Back since the SNB Shocker

About a month ago, the Swiss National Bank surprised the markets by getting rid of its cap on CHF in terms of the EUR. Essentially, it was no longer going to defend the 1.20 floor on EUR/CHF. The announcement resulted in a massive move into the CHF, causing wild moves in swissie-pairs like the EUR/CHF and USD/CHF.

Since the announcement, both EUR/CHF and USD/CHF have been climbing their ways back up. We should remember that the other thing the SNB did was to cut libor rates to a negative range. In the medium-term, this should be a bearish factor for the CHF. Let's take a look at the EUR/CHF and USD/CHF.

EUR/CHF 4H Chart 2/19


(click to enlarge)

The plunge in EUR/CHF was epic, leaving a lot of room to recover. The 4H chart shows price making new highs again this week. On one hand, price is now moving above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs, showing bullish bias. The RSI has also held above 40 after tagging 70, showing development of bullish momentum. On the other hand, the rally has very low volatility and therefore looks vulnerable especially with the 4H RSI showing oversold condition. If we see another bearish divergence as price approaches the 1.10 psychological level, we should anticipate a bearish attempt back towards the common price in the past couple of weeks around 1.06

USD/CHF 4H Chart 2/19


(click to enlarge)

I think the rally in USD/CHF will be more sustainable than the EUR/CHF's because one fundamental factor - The FOMC is looking to raise rates this year, possibly mid-year.

The 4H chart shows the USD/CHF rally and break above a tight consolidation around 0.93. It is showing bullish bias and momentum like the EUR/CHF. Now, if there is a pullback, we should monitor the 0.93 area as support. The next key level to watch for will be around 0.9750-0.98, a support/resistance pivot seen in the daily chart.

USD/CHF Daily Chart 2/19
(click to enlarge)