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USD/CAD is Holding Above 1.26

USD/CAD has been consolidating since almost reaching 1.28 at the end of January. The 4H chart shows the coiling and triangle structure. 

USD/CAD 4H Chart 3/11
(click to enlarge)

Note that 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs are all clustered together, showing that the market has been directionless for a while, almost 2 months. However, we do see that price is holding above the SMAs, which shows bullish bias.

Also, note that since the January high, each bullish breakout attempt was faded before reaching the previous resistance pivot. This week however, price has broken this pattern, and thus USD/CAD looks poised to test that 1.28 high again. 

If price falls back below 1.26, the bullish outlook would look weak. A break below 1.25, and thus below the cluster of SMAs could introduce a bearish correction scenario, or at least one in the near-term back towards the 1.2350-1.24 lows.

Staying with the bullish trend, if USD/CAD breaks above 1.28, it opens up the 1.30-1.3060 highs from 2008-2009.