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Will Q1 Earnings Hold a Surprise for Mondelez (MDLZ) Stock?

Mondelez International, Inc. MDLZ is set to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 27, before the market opens. Last quarter, the company posted a negative earnings surprise of 6.12%.

The global snacks company surpassed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 8.22%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors at Play

Mondelez’s volume trends have been soft since 2014 due to category weakness as a result of lower demand. In 2015, divestiture of the coffee business as well as certain low-margin businesses further hurt volumes. Moreover, the company generates around 80% of its sales from international markets, which exposes it to significant currency-related headwinds.

Nonetheless, the company witnessed better-than-expected organic sales trends in 2015. The improvement came on the back of marketing support funded by cost savings from the $3.5 billion restructuring plan. The savings are being used to fund marketing investments and capacity expansion to accelerate top line and gain market share. We expect to see continued improvement in sales trends in the first quarter of 2016

Moreover, cost savings and productivity gains have helped the company maintain strong margins. We expect the trend to continue in the first quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Mondelez is likely to beat earnings this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive http://www.zacks.com/earnings/earnings-surprise-predictions/">Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Mondelez is 0.00% as both the Most Accurate estimate as well as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 39 cents.

Zacks Rank: Mondelez’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about an earnings beat.

We caution against Sell-rated stocks (Zacks Rank #4 or 5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Some stocks in the food sector that have both a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank include:

The Kraft Heinz Co. KHC with an Earnings ESP of +4.92% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Kellogg Co. K with an Earnings ESP of +1.08% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. MJN with an Earnings ESP of +2.41% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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KELLOGG CO (K): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
MEAD JOHNSON NU (MJN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
MONDELEZ INTL (MDLZ): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
KRAFT HEINZ CO (KHC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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