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Scarcity And Stocks: How To Follow (Or Avoid) A Late '90s 'New Economy' Playbook

For the better part of 15 months, I have pounded the table for longer-term U.S. treasuries. Most financial pundits thought that I was nuts in December of 2013; they debated my scarcity premise throughout 2014 and they dismiss my relative value argument here in 2015. About the only concession? The talking heads have often acknowledged that if the "poop" hits the propeller, the proverbial flight to quality would involve super-sized demand for the perceived safety of U.S. sovereign debt.

Nevertheless, there has been more conversation about people missing out on the opportunity to short oil or buy a 2% stock dip than investors neglecting opportunities in federal government IOUs. From my vantage point, however,the prospects for increasing long bond exposure have not been quite as appealing since the iShares 20+ U.S. Year Treasury Bond ETF's (NYSEARCA:TLT) 50-day trendline crossed above its 200-day one year ago. Read more