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Hugo in HTO Trading,

NZDUSD: On a critical support ahead of Interest Rate decision

The New Zealand inflation data showed that consumer prices aren’t increasing as fast as previously thought. Since then economic data has indicated that the economy may also not be expanding as fast as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) anticipated. This supports a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy, as opposed to further tightening right now.

Today on the economic calendar we have from New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate decision that is expected to stay unchanged at 3.5% after hiking it by 25bps at every policy meeting since March.

Yesterday NZDUSD fell making new fresh lows but founding some support at the 0.8224 level. We have a confirmed death cross in our hands turning this pair from a distribution phase to bearish phase.

Expecting upward move to key level at 0.8366 on a break above the previous day high at 0.8284 (scenario 1) or a break below the previous day low at 0.8224 could force NZDUSD to the Year low 0.8050 (scenario 2).