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Can EPR Properties (EPR) Pull a Surprise in Q1 Earnings?

EPR Properties EPR is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 28, after the closing bell.

This real estate investment trust (“REIT”) reported a positive surprise of 1.72% in the prior quarter and has, in fact, beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with a positive average surprise of 2.51%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first quarter funds from operations (“FFO”) per share is currently pegged at $1.18.



Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider This Quarter

EPR Properties is a specialty REIT that focuses on investments in properties across three primary market segments – Entertainment, Recreation and Education. The company has a diversified tenant base that is expected to aid growth as well as drive first-quarter results.

Armed with solid demand for quality education and associated facilities as well as modest supply, we expect the company to gain substantially from its investments. Also, in the Entertainment segment, the company is projected to benefit from improved customer service at expanded amenity theatres, which has been driving footfall. Recreation segments also promise an impressive performance, led by solid demand for properties amid economic recovery on the back of job growth and improved wages. However, first-quarter earnings are expected to be affected by higher general and administrative (G&A) expense, lower percentage rents and participating interest.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that EPR Properties will beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which is the percentage difference between the Most Accurate estimate of $1.15 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.18, is -2.54%.

Zacks Rank: EPR Properties has a Zacks Rank #3. While a favorable rank increases the predictive power of ESP, a negative Earnings ESP makes surprise predictions difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to report a positive surprise this quarter:

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. HST has an Earnings ESP of +2.63% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 29.

Vornado Realty Trust VNO has an Earnings ESP of +0.81% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report first-quarter 2016 results on May 2.

Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will release first-quarter 2016 results on May 2.

Note: FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income. All earnings per share numbers presented in this write up represent FFO per share.

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TAUBMAN CENTERS (TCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
EPR PROPERTIES (EPR): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
HOST HOTEL&RSRT (HST): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
VORNADO RLTY TR (VNO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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