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Investment idea - Walt Disney
13 march 2015

Walt Disney (DIS) is one of the largest financial conglomerates in the entertainment world, which includes studios (such as Marvel, Lucasfilm, Touchstone Pictures, DreamWorks, Pixar, etc.), TV channels (ABC, The Disney Channel, etc.), cable TV, theaters, parks, resorts, and shops.

The company recently held an investor meeting at which it outlined the following growth drivers:

- The company continues to deliver double-digit growth. According to Q1 2015 results, quarterly revenue increased by 8.8% y-o-y to USD 13.39 bn, outpacing expectations by 4.1%. Operating profit climbed 17.4% y-o-y to USD 3.55 bn, while an increase of 2.0 pps y-o-y in operating margin also adds positivity and points to higher efficiency. Adjusted EPS amounted to USD 1.27 (+23.3% y-o-y), outstripping the consensus by 18.9%.

- The company generates a significant cash flow, allowing it to pay generous dividends and buy back its own shares. Operating cash flow amounted to USD 1.86 bn in the reporting quarter (+53.1% y-o-y). The company raised annual dividend to USD 1.15 (+34% y-o-y), implying a 1.2% dividend yield. Disney spent USD 1.3 bn on its buyback program in Q1 2015.

- I believe that the company will continue to improve its financial performance due to the release of new films. Cinderella animated film was released in March. Tomorrowland starring George Clooney and Brad Pitt, while a sequel to The Avengers: Age of Altron will be released in spring. Ant-men and Inside Out are expected in summer. The company also plans to start production of Frozen 2, Star Wars: Episode 8 and Rogue One, a film based on the Star Wars.

In my opinion, the company’s improving financial performance coupled with higher dividend and buyback programs will boost Disney shares in the mid-term. I raised my mid-term fundamental valuation of the company to USD 117 and confirm Buy recommendation. The short-term technical target is USD 110. 

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Investment idea - Walt Disney

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