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Hugo in HTO Trading,

EURUSD: Trading within an upward channel

Last week the European Central Bank (ECB) released comments suggesting that more stimulus was needed to support the weakening Eurozone economy and that it was ‘clearly missing’ its target and posited that it was ‘obvious that additional sets of instruments were necessary’. Markets had already anticipated a move from the ECB to loosen policy further and these expectations were bolstered by these dovish remarks.

The US consumer price index (CPI) data still at 0.0%, wage growth weakening at 2.2% and the Philadelphia Fed index printed at -4.5 compared to market expectations of -2.0 turning the outcome clear as investors only now only see a rate rise from the US central bank in 2016.

Since the start of the year the currency fell more than 4.5% and is in a bullish phase since the start of September, trading above the 10-week moving average. Last week the EURUSD tried to rally with a narrow range but found enough resistance to give all its gains back to the market, closing in the red near the low of the week, creating a shooting star pattern. The stochastic is showing a bullish momentum and is above the 50 mid line.

Expecting a downward move to the base of the channel at 1.1142 on a bounce from a weekly resistance at 1.1534 (scenario 1) or a break above the weekly resistance at 1.1534 could push the currency up to another weekly resistance at 1.2041 (scenario 2).