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GBP/JPY Testing a Trendline Resistance

GBP/JPY started the year with a triple bottom, and rallied to 185 by February. Then it found a price top there, and has been retreating in March. In the 1H chart, we can see that price has fallen back to 181.30 last week, before rebounding.

GBP/JPY 1H Chart 3/9

(click to enlarge)

Note that the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs are sloping down and in bearish alignment. Price was trading under them last week, but is starting this week with a push above the 50-hour SMA, and now a test of the 100-hour SMA. The rally is also pushing against a falling trendline that has kept the March price action bearish. The RSI has been holding below 60 throughout March, and now the RSI is testing 60 again. 

So, if price pushes above 183.00, and the 1H RSI pushes above 60, or even 70, then we are likely going to see a shift back to the bullish outlook. 

GBP/JPY 4H Chart 3/9
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows the prevailing bullish outlook from February. This bull run however has already lost its momentum. It is hanging on with the 200-period SMA showuing support. If we get a bullish outlook, we should first mind the resistance around 184.00, especially if the 4H RSI approaches and stalls at 60. 

Now, if price fails to push above 183, there woudl still be pressure on the 181.00 pivot. Below that, there is a support/resistance area around 180.25, which is also the 50% retracement of the February rally. This would be the next target in the short-term for the current short-term downtrend.