Forecast came true

Crude stockpiles will drop for a second week in the U.S.
27 august 2014

WTI Trades Near Three-Day High Before Supply Data; Brent Steady

West Texas Intermediate traded near a three-day high before a government report forecast to show crude stockpiles dropped for a second week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

Futures were little changed in New York after rising 0.6 percent yesterday. Crude inventoriesprobably shrank by 2.5 million barrels to 360 million last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before data from the Energy Information Administration. The American Petroleum Institute was said to have reported that supplies fell by 1.3 million barrels. Iran is joining efforts to back Iraqi Kurds battling Islamic State militants who have captured swathes of northern Iraq.

“The Energy Administration figures are a possible market mover,” Ric Spooner, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said by phone. “Geopolitical risk is back in play, simply because the market has stripped a lot of the premium out of pricing, making it vulnerable to any negative news.”

WTI for October delivery was at $93.93 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 7 cents, at 1:14 p.m. Sydney time. It climbed 51 cents to $93.86 yesterday, the highest close since Aug. 21. The volume of all futures traded was about 61 percent below the 100-day average. Prices have gained 4.6 percent this year.

Brent for October settlement was 28 cents higher at $102.78 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude traded at a premium of $8.85 to WTI, compared with $8.64 yesterday.

Fuel Stockpiles

U.S. gasoline inventories probably slid by 1.6 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 22, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts. The API in Washington reported a decline of 3.2 million, Bain Energy said.

Distillate supplies, including heating oil and diesel, are projected to remain at 121.5 million barrels after three weeks of declines. The industry report yesterday showed an increase of 2.4 million.

The API collects information on a voluntary basis from operators of refineries, bulk terminals and pipelines, while the government requires that reports be filed with the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

In Iraq, the president of the the Kurdish Regional Government, Massoud Barzani, said he’s asked Iran for ammunition to fight insurgents, according to the Persian Gulf nation’s Mehr news agency.

The conflict in Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has largely spared the south, home to about three-quarters of its crude output. The nation pumped 3 million barrels a day last month, a Bloomberg survey of producers and analysts shows.

via bloomberg
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