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Alibaba Trading at Key Resistance

Alibaba (BABA) has been bearish in 2015, but was able to find support around 57.20/ We have seen smoe choppy action since October 2015 and now as we can see in the daily chart.

BABA Daily Chart 4/14

(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows that price has turned sideways, but is very choppy. The latest swing in 2016 was from around 60 to almost 80 in April. 

As price approaches 80, momentum has slowed, as we can see from the RSI. 80 is indeed a key resistance that involves a falling trendline, and is in the middle of a support/resistance zone. 

A break above 80, can clear the path towards 86-86.40, which is the next key resistance. If price can't clear 80, Alibaba should still be considered neutral-bearish. But if price does break 80, we can start to remove the "bearish" bias. A great indication of a bullish trend would be a failed bearish attempt. Let's say we see a sharp retreat towards 70-72. If price can hold above 70, we should consider BABA turning bullish. But if price falls back below 70, BABA still has that bearish bias even if it is simply consolidating. 

Because the bullish picture is not clear, even if price does break 80, I would wait to see if price retreats towards 70-72. I would also watch the daily RSI and see if it comes back to 40. If price can hold above 70 and the RSI turns up from 40, then I would be convinced of a bullish development. Also, I would have better reward to risk ratio, assuming that I would put a stop below but not too far from 70.