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Hugo in HTO Trading,

EURCHF: Maybe pausing after a strong rally

Since the beginning of the year the currency pair gained more than 6.5% plus last week rallied over 0.5% and made a phase change, shifting from a recovery to an accumulation phase.

Last week the EURCHF went back and forward without any clear direction with a narrow range plus a narrow spread, closing in the middle of the weekly range however managed to close above the previous week high, which suggests bullish momentum.

The currency pair is made a new high for the year although seems to the losing the upward steam.

The stochastic is showing an extreme overbought market and is beginning to display a weak bearish momentum.

Expecting an upward move to 2017 high at 1.1537 on a bounce from a Fibonacci retracement at 1.1324 (scenario 1) however a break below the Fibonacci retracement at 1.1324 may push the currency pair downward to a key level at 1.1199 (scenario 2).