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U.S. Nonfarm Private Payrolls: January 2015 Preview

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 231,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s January update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The monthly prediction reflects a moderate deceleration in growth vs. December’s 240,000 gain.

Two estimates based on recent surveys of economists point to a slightly lesser gain for private payrolls in December relative to The Capital Spectator’s median projection.

Here’s a review of the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind the forecasts that are used to calculate The Capital Spectator’s median prediction:

ARIMA: An autoregressive integrated moving average model that analyzes the historical record of private payrolls in R via the “forecast” package.

ES: An exponential smoothing model that analyzes the historical record of private payrolls in R via the “forecast” package.

R-1: A linear regression model that analyzes the historical record of… Read More …