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USD/JPY continues to coil; now I am seeing more bearish bias

At the start of the week, I had confidence that USD/JPY was going to hold above 100. This was the result of a bullish breakout from a small triangle. However, the pair is still trading in week-long triangle, and price action is looking more bearish, putting pressure on that 100 psychological support.

Disclosure: I opened a couple of positions long at 100.30. If price action breaks above the triangle to the upside, I will consider adding more positions. A break below 100 will likely close these positions. But I will refrain from opening a short position because USD/JPY is at a key support area (we will see on the daily chart).

USD/JPY 1H Chart 8/24

(click to enlarge)

Bearish than neutral:
- The 1H chart shows that USD/JPY was bearish heading into a triangle last week.
- Price has neutralized, but we can see that its still trading under the 200-hour simple moving average (SMA). This shows me at least a slight bearish bias. 
- Price is holding above 100, but today, price is having trouble pushing above 100.50 towards the triangle resistance. This "failed" attempt to reach resistance adds to the bearish bias I am developing this week.

USD/JPY Daily Chart 8/24

(click to enlarge)

Key support:
- Looking at the daily chart, we can see that price has been finding support around 99 and 100 since sliding to these levels in June after the Brexit vote.
- Since then, there was a strong push to about 107.50 that could have neutralized the bearish trend. However, most bearish signals are still intact:
- For example, price is still trading under the 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Also, the RSI didn't break above 60, which reflects maintenance of the bearish momentum. 

It is truly hard to pick a side at the moment. My gut - based on central bank policy divergence between the FOMC and the BoJ - is to go against prevailing trend. This means to rely on the June-July lows as the lows for the year. But if price can break below those lows and the 98.80 level, I would instead consider selling on a subsequent rally.