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GBP/JPY Threatening the 2014-high

GBP/JPY has been bullish since failing to hold below 170 at the beginning of last week. The daily chart shows the failed bearish breakout of the 200-day SMA and the lows from April and May. This false breakout set the stage for a sharp rally that is signaling bullish continuation especially after the 9/16 day candle showed respect to the 173.00 handle as support. With price poised to test the 175.36 high on the year, where can we expect GBP/JPY to go if it makes a new high on the year and break above the 2014-consolidation mode.

(GBP/JPY Daily Chart 9/17)

There are a couple of breakout projections. If we take the entire 2014 price range, we have a range about 1100-pips (from about 164 to about 175). Let's round that down and say 1000-pips (we are being conservative here, the actual range is about 1150 pips . We would project 1000 pips from the current high, making an aggressive bullish target between 185-186 for 2015. 

If we use a small range, the one we had since April, we would have a projection of about 500-600 pips (again, being slightly conservative with the measuring), which would put the target to 180-181 area.

When we look at the monthly chart, we can see that around 183.90-184, we have 50% retracement of the 2007-2009 decline. This should give us some idea of what we can expect a pending breakout to go to in the long-term, or at least for a projection a year out.

(GBP/JPY Monthly Chart 9/17)