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CHF/JPY Trading at the 200-Day SMA after Breaking Channel Support

CHF/JPY has been relatively flat since the end of 2013, which represents a consolidation after a bullish market that started from the 2012-low of 78.36.


(chfjpy weekly chart, 5/18)

The weekly chart shows a market that is consolidating as well as attempting to break below a rising channel support which started from the 2013-low of 93.91.

Channel Support Broken
With the breakdown of the channel support, the market opens up the 111.68 support pivot, and 2014-low. This bearish outlook however has a challenge as we start the trading week.

200-day SMA
When you look at the daily chart, you see price testing, and finding temporary support at the 200-day SMA. Also note that the oscillators are starting to turn up from the oversold area. 


(chfjpy daily chart, 5/18)

Different Time-frames
While the medium term outlook might be neutral and slightly bearish, the short-term outlook could turn bullish in this upcoming week. Also remember that the long-term mode, since 2012, is still an intact bullish trend. 

Pullback:
With that in mind, if you have the notion that this market is indeed neutral-bearish with downside risk towards 111.70-112 (near 2014-low), then you might still want to wait for a pullback. 

In the short-term a pullback has upside toward the 114.70 pivot up to the 115.00 psychological handle. This area should provide resistance if the market is turning bearish towards 111.70-112.