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Gold - Expect Another Swing to Long-term Triangle Resistance

Gold price has been surging since traders put in a low at 1240.50 at the end of May. There was some consolidation around 1320, but we saw price break to the upside this week after the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Though the minutes focused on ending QE, which carries a hawkish tone, traders are not convinced a rate hike will come in the first half of the year. The expectation is held for mid-2015, with possibility of pushing back if Q2 growth follows in the footstep of the terrible Q1 GDP (-2.9% annualized).


(gold 4h chart, 7/11)

In any case, the technical picture of gold is bullish in the 4H chart. While we pull back to end the week, we can see if the breakout will hold. If price can stay above 1320, the bullish outlook is still valid. Monitor the RSI in the 4H chart. If it holds above 40, the bullish momentum is still in play.


(gold daily chart)

If price indeed holds above 1320, and the 4H RSI stays above 40, we should expect another bullish swing, but should also limit this bullish outlook to the 1350 area. 
1) This is a common high in March 2014. 
2) A falling triangle trendline is likely to challenge price if it rallies to 1350. 

A descending triangle has declining resistance levels and a relatively flat support. This means bulls are getting weaker, though bears are not getting stronger. 

However, the 1240.50 May/June low suggests a shift. We do not know if there will be bullish strength to break the triangle, but we do see bears giving up earlier, before testing that triangle low in the 1180-1185 area. Still we should expect a bullish swing to find some short-term resistance around 1350, especially because the daily RSI is overbought, above 70. 

If price does break above the triangle trendline, it will open up the 1388.50 high on the year as well as the 1400 handle. Above 1440, we should see a test of the triangle high at 1433.73.