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USD/JPY - Double Top Forming Under 104

The USD/JPY has been bullish this week. It rallied from last Friday's low of 102.13 to 103.96, helped by hawkish FOMC minutes on the 8/20 session.

However, since the 8/21 session, USD/JPY has held under the 104 handle, which is the March-April resistance. It is forming a double top ahead of the 8/22 US session, and looks like it will complete it by the time US traders all get to the charts. 
A break below 103.60 would complete the double top and open up at least a near-term bearish outlook especially if the 1H RSI also falls below 40, which reflects loss of bullish momentum.

 The 103.20 area looks like the intra-session target.
This is a pivot from a local consolidation before the FOMC minutes were released. The 100-hour simple moving average is around 103.20, and there is a rising trendline there. There should be buyers here especially if the 1H RSI dips below 30, or better yet provides a bullish divergence signal.
USD/JPY 1H chart 8/22

(click to enlarge)

If the 103.20 level does not hold, the next support could be found around 102.80. Actually the previous resistance around 103 could be considered support, but there can be elbow space down toward 102.80. That is the 200-hour SMA, or the 50-period SMA in the 4H chart. August's rising trendline will likely meet a decline around 102.80 as well. Finally, if the RSI is around 40 when price dips to this 102.80-103 support area, look for buyers. 

A break below 102.80 with the 4H RSI below 40 could signal a shift from the current bullish medium-term outlook to a neutral one. Otherwise, the medium-term outlook is still bullish, and the pressure will remain on the 104 handle. A break above 104.15 would clear the March-April high and expose the high on the year around 105.44.

USD/JPY 4H Chart 8/22

(click to enlarge)