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USD/CHF - Triple Top vs. Rising Trendline

USD/CHF has been bullish since May after putting in a double bottom. It has since popped up above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), and has pushed the RSI above 70. The RSI has also held above 40, which is a sign that the bullish momentum is maintained. The rising trendlines from May, and from July are currently still intact.

(USD/CHF Daily Chart)

In the 4H chart, you can see that price started to consolidate after USD/CHF hit 0.90 in the end of July. By mid-August, last week, the pair has formed a consolidation range, or a triple top. With a break below 0.9030, we had a triple top.Price fell below the 100-, and 50-period SMAs, and the RSI dipped below 30, showing bearish momentum.

However, the bearish outlook is not looking good because

1) price held above the 200-period SMA in the 4H chart. 
2) The rising trendline from July is still intact.

(USD/CHF 4H Chart)


As we get into the 8/18 session, price has returned to about 0.9070. This is going to be a key area (0.9070-80 area). This is the central pivot of the broken consolidation, and is where the 100-, and 50-period SMAs reside. Also the RSI is approaching 60. So this is where sellers can maintain a short-term bearish outlook, if price can hold below 0.9080, and the RSI can turn back down without breaking above 60. Still the downside risk will have to be limited. Even if the July trendline breaks, the May trendline is still a key support factor, so we should not look for a bearish outlook beyond 0.90. 

A break above 0.9080 however, can be a bullish continuation signal that opens up the 0.91-0.9115 high and then the 2014-high at 0.9156.