Nick Nasad
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Macro Data: US Retail Sales Have Been Slumping Before The Snow

Yesterday, US data showed retail sales falling 0.4% month-over-month in January, a figure that was weaker than expected, though the miss was largely blamed on poor weather (which makes sense to me).

However, as this interesting chart shows, when we look at retail sales/services year-over-year, the trend has been rather poor. January's 3.1% y/y change is the weakest since March 2013 and generally retail activity has been falling since peaking around June 2011. Now 3% growth is still ok, but if sales continue to fall further, then we are looking at conditions that in the last 20 years have been associated with recessions.