Nick Nasad
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EUR/AUD: 3rd Times A Charm For A Break of 1.50 Support?

The EUR/AUD is looking pretty interesting here. While in the last month I had looked at the 1.50 level as a level where the pair could find support, the macro situation has shifted here in February, with the RBA moving from a dovish to a neutral stance, and pressure being put on the ECB to tackle deflation with looser monetary policy.

  • As a result, the pair has dropped 800 pips from its peak in late January, and is now testing the 1.50 support for the 3rd time this year. Will 3rd time be the charm? 
  • The 1.50 level goes to August as a key pivot - as it had acted as resistance before being broken in early December and switching to support.
  • Today, the pair pierced this support, and it will be interesting to see if it can close below.
  • While the 100-daily EMA (in green) as well as a 50% fibonacci retracement are up ahead, a break through those would really encourage the  bears to pile on, perhaps sending this pair down towards 1.4750.