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Resilience in Oil and Loonie

After a brief dip in oil prices following the Doha summit, it looks like the market is still bullish on oil at least in the short-term. The Doha summit failed to provide an agreement to freeze oil supply, after which we saw oil prices fall. However, as we can see in the 4H chart, price has already rebounded back above 40.

Will the Oil Rally Fold after the Doha Summit?

USDWTI 4H Chart 4/19

(click to enlarge)

As we can see in the 4H chart, WTI Crude oil retained its bullish bias after the post-Doha reaction. Price essentially bounced off a rising trendline and the 200-period simple moving average (SMA). 

Now, 41 is a key pivot in the near-term. Inability to crack 41 could reflect weakness in bulls, but a break below 37.50 will be needed to suggest strength in bears. 

The loonie is correlated to oil, and was also resilient against the USD. I also noted pressure on the loonie yesterday:

Loonie  (CAD) Pressured after the Doha Summit

USD/CAD 4H Chart 4/19

(click to enlarge)

We can see that the push missed 1.30, and the CAD eventually took over, continuing the prevailing USD/CAD-downtrend. The price action here is extremely bearish, with price holding under the cluster of SMAs and with the RSI holding under 60. USD/CAD now has the 1.25 handle in sight.