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Actionable news in TLT: ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF,

The Global Bubble Has Burst - "Will Tear At The Threads Of Society"

Excerpted from Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin blog,

Bubble Economy or Not?

"The US economy has made tremendous progress in recovering from the damage from the financial crisis. Slowly but surely the labor market is healing. For well over a year, we have averaged about 225,000 jobs (gains) a month. The unemployment rate now stands at 5%. So, we’re coming close to our assigned congressional goal of maximum employment. Inflation which my colleagues here, Paul (Volcker) and Alan (Greenspan), spent much of their time as chairmen bringing inflation down from unacceptably high levels. For a number of years now, inflation has been running under our 2% goal, and we are focused on moving it up to 2%. But we think that it’s partly transitory influences, namely declining oil prices and the strong dollar that are responsible for pulling inflation below the 2% level we think is most desirable. So, I think we’re making progress there as well. This is an economy on a solid course - not a bubble economy. We tried carefully to look at evidence of potential financial instability that might be brewing and some of the hallmarks of that - clearly overvalued asset prices, high leverage, rising leverage, and rapid credit growth. We certainly don’t see those imbalances. And so although interest rates are low, and that is something that can encourage reach for yield behavior, I certainly wouldn’t describe this as a bubble economy.”

-Janet Yellen, April 7, 2016, International House: “A Conversation with Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker”

From my analytical perspective, unsustainability is a fundamental feature of “Bubble Economies.” They are sustained only so long as sufficient monetary fuel is forthcoming. Over time, such economies are characterized by deep structural maladjustment, the consequence of years of underlying monetary inflation. Excessive issuance of money and Credit are always at the root of distortions in investment and spending patterns. Asset inflation and price Bubbles invariably play central roles in latent fragility. Risk intermediation is instrumental, especially late in the cycle as the quantity of Credit expands and quality deteriorates. Prolonged Credit booms – the type associated with Bubble Economies – invariably have a major government component.

Japanese officials in the late-eighties recognized the risks associated with their Bubble economy and moved courageously to pierce the Bubble. Outside of that, few policymakers have been even willing to admit that Bubble Dynamics have taken hold in their systems. Apparently, only in hindsight did U.S. monetary authorities recognize the Bubble component that came to exert pernicious effects on the U.S. economy in the late-eighties, later in the nineties and again in the 2002-2007 mortgage finance Bubble period. I would strongly argue that the U.S. has been in a “Bubble Economy” progression for the better part of thirty years, interrupted by financial crises relatively quickly resolved by aggressive governmental reflationary measures. And each reflation has been more egregious than the previous, with resulting booms exacerbating underlying financial and economic maladjustment.

Chair Yellen stated that the U.S. “is an economy on a solid course - not a bubble economy” – “we tried carefully to look at evidence of potential financial instability that might be brewing.” That the Fed has for seven post-crisis years clung to near zero rates and a $4.5 TN balance sheet...


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