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Hawaiian Holdings (HA) Q1 Earnings: Stock to Disappoint?

Hawaiian Holdings Inc. HA, the parent company of Hawaiian Airlines, is scheduled to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 21, after market close.

Last quarter, Hawaiian Holdings’ earnings had met the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Meanwhile, the trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise stands at 5.49%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

 

 

 

Factors Likely to Influence this Quarter

The company expects operating revenue per ASM in the first quarter of 2016 in the band of negative 1.5% to positive 1.5%, on a year-over-year basis. Capacity is projected to increase in the range of 2.5% to 4.5%. Meanwhile, economic fuel cost in the first quarter of 2016 is estimated in the band of $1.50 to $1.60 as against the year-ago figure of $2.21.

Notably, Hawaiian Airlines posted a significant rise in air traffic in the month of January, February and March this year. Traffic – measured in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) – inched up 5.2%, 7% and 5.3%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. Moreover, the company witnessed an increase in the load factor or percentage of seats filled by passengers, in each of the three months.

Additionally, cheap oil, increased demand for travel and constant expansion initiatives are likely to boost its top and bottom line in the to-be-reported quarter.

However, stiff competition from low-cost carriers as well as from other legacy carriers and the ongoing consolidation trend in the transportation industry may dent the company’s profits in the quarter.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Hawaiian Holdings is likely to beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. Unfortunately, that is not the case here as elaborated below.

Zacks ESP: Hawaiian Holdings has an earnings ESP of +1.33%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at 76 cents, whereas the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged lower at 75 cents.

Zacks Rank: Hawaiian Holdings has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Note that, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Canadian National Railway Company CNI has an earnings ESP of +1.47% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Air Lease Corporation AL has an earnings ESP of +14.10% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Frontline Ltd. FRO has an earnings ESP of +11.54% and a Zacks Rank #3.
   
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Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
HAWAIIAN HLDGS (HA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CDN NATL RY CO (CNI): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
FRONTLINE LTD (FRO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
AIR LEASE CORP (AL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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