Arcángel de Jesús Montoya
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Arcángel de Jesús Montoya in Money Trafficking,

Look Into ABIOMED's Options Prior To Earnings

ABIOMED, Inc. (ABMD), a provider of temporary percutaneous mechanical circulatory support devices that offers care to heart failure patients, operating in the segment of the research, development and sale of medical devices to assist or replace the pumping function of the failing heart, is reporting earnings on Thursday, July 28, at market open:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

As evident from the above, the company beat earnings estimates in 88% of time in the last eight quarters, underperforming in 12% of time, and has seen modest volatility in the market price of its stock over the last three months:

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The market participants expect the following numbers over the next few quarters, including the upcoming one:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

On the other hand, market data show that the August options are relatively cheap:

(Source: TD Waterhouse)

The monthly straddles (options with a strike price of $115.00) are worth around 9.9% of the current market price of the stock. Historically, the stock has been more volatile than that on a monthly basis over the last year:

(Source: Google Finance. Calculations by author)

As you can see, the stock has had a monthly standard deviation of 15.6% over the last 52 weeks, while the straddle expiring in a bit less than a month has an implied monthly volatility of around 14.0% (calculated based on 17 business days remaining until expiration), also including volatility from the earnings event this week. I therefore see signs of modest undervaluation in these options.

Investors can be interested in selling out-of-money options to partially finance the straddles. On the one hand, this will limit expected returns. On the other hand, this action will minimize losses in the event the stock does not move swiftly over the next three weeks.

What do you think of this trade?