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Janet in Trading psychology,

Purchasing managers signal bond yields aren’t so wacky after all

Maybe the soaring bond market isn’t so off base.

That’s if you look at what purchasing managers say about the prices their companies are paying. When you take the Institute for Supply Management’s indexes for both the manufacturing and services sector, they show a big drop in prices paid.

It’s important to note these indexes don’t measure prices outright, but the direction from the prior month.

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, says the combined prices-paid index is the lowest since the depths of economic despair in April 2009.

He says this deflationary pressure is consistent with a 10-year yield of around 2.5%. On Thursday, the 10-year yield was around 1.8%.

In his opinion, that still leaves roughly 75 basis points of what he calls “artificial air” in the bond market. But it also means the consensus view that bond yieldsTMUBMUSD10Y, -0.58% will reach 3% by the end of this year may be too ambitious.

The bond market has been on a tear. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves in the opposite direction to prices, is down from 2.8% in April.

Steve Goldstein