Nick Nasad
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COT Positioning Data Shows Short Covering in GBP, AUD, and More Longs in EUR

To start the week, I like to take a look at the updated Commitment of Traders data as it shows the change in holdings of large investors of key currencies.

With the important FOMC decision, I'd expect to have some shifting of positions and I'm not disappointed as there was an increase of net longs in EUR, and some fairly strong short covering in the GBP and AUD.

Here's the visual of the positioning in the EUR. We should be focused on the red line which is the large speculators category, and we see a nice pick-up from 12, 696 to 31,907 net long contracts (each valued at 125,000 euros).

For the GBP, we see positioning shift from a -31,166 to a -6,310 contracts, an acknowledgement by the GBP bears that holding GBP shorts may be fruitless at this point (each contract is worth 100,000 GBP).

And, in our 3rd look, here's the AUD, which also saw a strong swing in positioning where net shorts went from -60,032 contracts to -27,360 (each contract is worth 100,000 AUD).

What do we take away from all this? Well, its fairly obvious that large speculators had built up USD longs in anticipation of the FOMC decision, believing that tapering was going to be announced and had to shift their positioning quite strongly after the surprise announcement.

This could mean further weakness in the USD as smart money may now switch to the other side of the trade, but it also means that with positioning more neutral, there will be more focus on incoming data and events before the large investors and hedge funds begin to build up positions in one direction or the other. 

- Nick