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CAN Inflation Data Fails to Spark CAD-Strength

Statistics Canada has released its Canada inflation data for September.

CAN CPI m/m (Sept.): 0.1%
Forecast: 0.0%
Previous: 0.0%
Core CAN CPI m/m (Sept.): 0.2%
Forecast: 0.1%
Previous 0.5%

CPI y/y (Sept): 2.0% vs. Oct: 2.1%

Headline CPI for Canada:
(click to enlarge; source: StatCan)

The CPI inflation data was at the upper end of average forecasts, but it does show inflation above water.We have seen a few months of CPI data around 0.0%, and September's 0.1% is not much of a relief to those worried about declining price pressure. The historical chart shows a steady decline in the annual inflation rate June's 2.4%. Inflation is actually at the exact "target level" of 2.0%, but there is some prevailing downside pressure, so we will have to see price stabilize for a couple more months to fade the current falling-price pressure.

Here is a look at the components:

(click to enlarge; source: StatCan)

The USD/CAD fell this week from the 1.1385 high (high on the year) after poor US data on Wednesday (10/15) However, it has been holding above 1.1226. Today's inflation data received mixed reaction, but it is starting to look like price is respecting this week's lows despite briefly cracking it. If price can climb back above 1.1270, the USD/CAD will maintian its bullish outlook with the first target to the triangle resistance coming down from the 1.1385 high.

(USD/CAD 1H Chart 10/17)