Nick Nasad
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AUD/USD - Was FOMC Reaction an Exhaustion Move?

Well, we had been reporting on the AUD/USD's rally for the last month, and had a nice technical pattern set-up that finished its projected move. While I had been in favor of further AUD/USD strength prior to the FOMC decision, and had the idea that general USD weakness would follow the FOMC decision, I'm getting an uneasy feeling that the sharp reaction to the FOMC may not have been the start of a directional move, but instead one that may fizzle out.

From a technical standpoint, its too early to say that, but in addition to reaching the measured move projection near 0.9530, we have a few other bearish clues, including the pair bouncing down off the 38.2% retracement of the full downswing from April to August, and a test of the 70 level in RSI.

Now, the saving grace would be that the 100-EMA (in cyan) will act as support, and that the old level of resistance here set as Monday's high (see chart below), will now turn to support, and that the 2-day retrace to the FOMC decision was just that, a normal retrace.



I'm therefore stuck in a wait and see mode until further clues present themselves and will re-assess what market sentiment is like after the weekend.

- Nick