Alex Cho
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Apple Channel Checks Points to an iPhone Shipment Miss

Alright, I know I’ve said a lot of positive things about Apple. But, let’s consider the risks of buying the stock going into its earnings release given the release of iPhone channel checks.

On April 11th 2016, Mizuho Securities provided an update on supply chain:

Based on our supply-chain checks, we think the company is likely to report about 49-50 million iPhone units for the quarter, which would be slightly below consensus of 50 million units, and ASPs could be lower too.

Segment-wise, we expect iPhone shipments (Q3’16) to be slightly below current expectations. Based on our checks, we think management is likely to base its forecast on iPhone unit shipments and ASPs of about 42-43 million and $610-620, respectively, versus current consensus of about 44 million units and $647.

I have to agree with Mizuho on the potential downside to iPhone shipments for the duration of the year. However, investors are looking beyond FY’16 as evidenced by the recent price momentum. Since shipments will remain weak for a while, it’s worth noting that quarterly earnings volatility will remain elevated. Even so, I like many others believe it’s still a long-term buy. I will provide my updated stance on the company soon.