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NZD/USD - Bearish Continuation Scenario

In February, NZD/USD rallied from a low of 0.7176 to a high just above 0.76. However, after a double top, price looked ready to fall back even ahead of Friday's US jobs report. 

NZD/USD 4H Chart 3/9
(click to enlarge)

After the jobs data, the USD gained across the board and dragged the NZD/USD further below a rising speedline and the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. This confirmed the double top, which is old news at this point. The RSI dipped below 30, which shows revival of the bearish momentum after it was violated in February when the RSI kept pushing above 60. 

The pair is starting the week with some support. 

However, the bears should be in charge at this point, and if you see price push to 0.7450, be ready for sellers especially if the 4H RSI is in the 50-60 area. 

A conservative target would be back towards the 0.7175-0.72 lows on the year. A more aggressive one would look to continue the prevailing trend from 2014 with the 0.70 handle in sight.

At this point, a break above 0.7525 can be a sign of a fake bearish continuation signal, which should translate into a bullish correction signal with pressure on 0.76 and beyond.