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The next recession is already here—and there isn't much the Fed can do

While investors have been focused on the perennial failed hope for a second half economic recovery, they have been missing the most salient point: the U.S. most likely entered into a recession at the end of last quarter.

That's right, when adjusting nominal GDP growth for core consumer price inflation for the average of the past two quarters, the recession is already here. But before we look deeper into this, let's first look at the following five charts that illustrate the economy has been steadily deteriorating for the past few years and that the pace of decline has recently picked up steam.

There is no better indicator of global growth than copper. Affectionately referred to as "Dr. Copper," this base metal has traditionally been a great barometer of economic health. Unfortunately, as you can see from the chart below, copper has been in a bear market for the past five years and shows no sign of a recovery from its 55-percent plunge.

Next, we have the Baltic Dry Index. This index measures the demand to transport dry commodities overseas. An advancement of this index would represent an increase in global growth. But as you can see, this index has been in a down-trend since the end of 2013 and fallen 75 percent from that point.

Source: CNBC

With both of these vital indicators pointing south, it should come as no surprise that Reuters recently reported that the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said that global trade would only grow by, "2 percent this year, a level it has fallen to only five times in the past five decades and that coincided with...


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