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AUD/USD - Key Trendline Holds Resistance

AUD/USD has been somewhat bullish in 2016. But as we can see in the weekly chart, this bullish attempt is within the context of a correction against the bearish trend since 2013.

AUD/USD Weekly chart 9/10

(click to enlarge)

Trendline resistance:
- In the past few weeks, price action has been testing a key falling trendline that goes back to 2013. 
- So far the trendline has been holding. This week, there was another push to challenge the trendline, but again the market retreated. 
- The price action at this trendline suggests that bulls do not have commitment in this market, which suggests that bears could easily revive the prevailing downtrend in the long-term. 

Sell on a rally?
- For me, price action is telling me that at least the bull market in the medium-term is weak .
- Therefore I will anticipate a medium-term neutral to bearish market. 
- With this neutral-bearish scenario in mind, I would wait for a rally to something like 0.76 or even better 0.7650 and consider selling with targets 0.7380-0.74, then 0.7150 and most aggressively to 0.70.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)