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GBP/AUD Testing a Falling Trendline

GBP/AUD has been sliding in 2014 from its early 1.9186 high. We can see a price top in Q1, followed by a consolidation period throughout Q2 and into Q3. In August, we saw a sharp bearish breakout swing bring the pair down to the 1.7212 low in September. Then, last week, we got a v-shape reversal pitting GBP/AUD against the a falling trendline from the 1.9186 high, and the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages.

(GBP/AUD Daily Chart 9/15)

Other than the sharp v-shape reversal from last week, GBP/AUD still looks bearish. The daily RSI is still below 60 which shows maintenance of the bearish momentum, and price is respecting the cluster of simple moving averages as resistance for now.

Now, if GBP/AUD retreats, let's see if it can hold above 1.76 and if the 4H RSI can hold above 40. If so, the bullish correction scenario would be in play. If the 4H RSI falls below 40, and price below 1.75 we are likely back to a bearish outlook. 


(GBP/AUD 4H Chart 9/15)