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AUD/USD Consolidating Between 0.9235 and 0.9374

AUD/USD has been consolidating in August. The 4H chart shows that price settled between 0.9235 and 0.9374. As we get into the 8/29 session, price is testing the range resistance, threatening a breakout.

Price has shifted from bearish to neutral, and a break above 0.9375 would signal a bullish shift. Otherwise, the market remains neutral. However within the "neutral" consolidation, if price holds north of 0.93, the bias is bullish. Below 0.93, AUD/USD would have bearish bias within the range, with pressure towards the 0.9235 low. 

(AUD/USD 4H Chart 8/29)

Also, if price breaks above 0.9375 then pulls back, holding above 0.93 can confirm the bullish outlook, while a break below 0.93 would indicate it was a false breakout, and signal a bearish outlook to 0.9235 and maybe lower.

When we look at the daily AUD/USD chart, we can see that the 0.92 will be key, so a break below 0.9235 is poised to test 0.92 as support. As long as price holds north of 0.92, the overall trend in 2014 remains bullish. It did shift to sideways mode more or less since April. A break below 0.92 would then shift the mode to bearish.

Now if price does break above 0.9375 and holds above 0.93, then the 2014-high of 0.9505 would be in sight. Note that a break above 0.9375 would also clear above the 100-, and 50-day SMAs, which is a bullish sign. The daily RSI reading has been holding above 40 after tagging 70, so the bullish momentum remains.

With the AUD/USD at the cusp of reviving the bullish outlook, we should expect traders to buy on the next dip. to challenge the 0.9374 high.


(AUD/USD 4H chart 8/29)