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Kimco (KIM) Q1 FFO Meets Estimates: Will Stock Gain?

Retail real estate investment trust (“REIT”) Kimco Realty Corporation’s KIM first-quarter 2016 adjusted funds from operations (“FFO”) per share came in at 37 cents, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate and a penny higher than the prior-year quarter. We expect the earnings release to lead to stock movement.

Total revenue increased 4.8% year over year to $297.2 million and exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $295 million. Revenues from rental properties climbed 6.4% from the prior-year quarter to $293.1 million.

Quarter in Details

At quarter end, pro-rata occupancy in the U.S. portfolio came in at 95.8%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10 basis points (bps). In the U.S. shopping center portfolio, pro-rata occupancy for small shop space (under 10,000 square feet) was 88.6%, up 40 bps year over year; while anchor tenant occupancy was 98.2%, unchanged from the year-ago quarter.

Same-property net operating income (NOI) climbed 1.5% year over year and included a 140-bps credit loss decline associated with the Sports Authority, Inc. bankruptcy filing.
Further, U.S. pro-rata rental-rate leasing spreads moved north 7.5%, with rental rates for new leases rising 19.1% and renewals/options advancing 6.3%.

Kimco exited first-quarter 2016 with cash and cash equivalents of around $222 million, up from $189.5 million at year-end 2015. Notably, during the first quarter, the company repaid $401.2 million in total consolidated debt, with a weighted average rate of 5.83%.

Kimco also raked in $138.5 million (through Apr 13, 2016) from the issuance of 4.96 million shares of common stock at a weighted average price of $28.20 per share. This issuance was done under its “at-the market continuous offering program” (the “ATM program”).

Portfolio Activity
 
Kimco’s 2020 Vision envisages the ownership of premium assets in major metro markets in the U.S. as well as a reduction in the joint venture portfolio. And its first-quarter transaction activity reflects net selling and capital accumulation.

In the reported quarter, Kimco completed around $460.8 million transactions, including the disposition of 7 Canadian shopping centers for $322.9 million. It also sold six U.S. properties for $107.6 million and four land parcels for $6.1 million.

On the other hand, the company acquired the remaining 50% stake in the Owings Mill Mall (Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA) for $11.5 million as well as parcels owned by J. C. Penney Company, Inc. JCP and Macy's Inc. M, for $5.2 million and $7.5 million, respectively, which would help it develop a new open-air center in its place. (Read more: Kimco Buys 2 Florida Assets, Reveals Q1 Activities)

Guidance

Kimco reaffirmed its full year 2016 guidance and expects FFO per share in a range of $1.54–$1.62, and adjusted FFO per share within $1.48–$1.52. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $1.55.

Notably, the company expects U.S. portfolio occupancy in the range of 95.7–96.2%, same-property NOI growth of 2.50%–3.50%, acquisitions worth of $450–$550 million (Kimco’s share) and dispositions totaling $825–$975 million (Kimco’s share).

Dividend Update

Kimco’s board of directors announced a quarterly cash dividend of 25.5 cents per share on its common stock. The dividend will be paid on Jul 15, 2016 to shareholders of record on Jul 6.

Our Viewpoint

Going forward, solid demand for Kimco’s properties, its portfolio transformation initiatives and easy access to capital bode well. Yet, near-term earnings dilution led by high disposition activity remains a concern.

Kimco currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Investors interested in retail REITs may consider The Macerich Company MAC which has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Note: FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income.

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