Fan Yang
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EUR/USD - Price Top; Regression Scenario

To start the week, EUR/USD was in a sideways consolidation range. I discussed my bearish bias trading this pattern on Monday (4/11)

EUR/USD - Waiting on Breakout with Bearish Preference

Today (4/13), we can see that EUR/USD indeed cracked 1.1450, but retreated sharply right away. I talked about fading from the range resistance, and avoiding buying on a break above 1.1450.

EUR/USD 4H Chart 4/13

(click to enlarge)

I had 2 positions entered, but now is down to 1 after price hit the first target at 1.1330. The second target is towards 1.1220. I really wanted to have 3 positions because I have a 3rd target to 1.1080-1.11.

The 3rd target might seem aggressive in the 4H chart, but when we look at the daily chart, we can see that it is simply the scenario where price regresses to the middle of a year-long consolidation range. 

Now, I am growing confident of the regression scenario, but I don't want to get ahead of myself. One of the reasons I wanted to take partial profit was because of the risk that EUR/USD will continue its prevailing uptrend and threaten 1.1450 again, this time with upside risk towards 1.15.

If the EUR/USD is indeed in a regression scenario a pullback should not climb back above 1.14, and preferable stays under the 1.1350 area.