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Is Vornado Realty (VNO) Set for a Beat in Q1 Earnings?

Real estate investment trust (“REIT”) Vornado Realty Trust VNO is expected to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 2, after the market closes.

Last quarter, Vornado reported a positive surprise of 6.2%. In the trailing four quarters, the company met estimates in one, recorded positive surprises in two and reported a miss in the rest. The average beat for the last four quarters was 10.4%. For first-quarter 2016, funds from operation (“FFO”) is currently pegged at $1.23 per share.

Let’s see how things have shaped up for this announcement.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Vornado is likely to beat estimates because it has the right combination of two key ingredients. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to beat estimates, and Vornado has the right mix.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the percentage difference between the Most Accurate estimate of $1.24 and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.23, is +0.81%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive surprise.

Zacks Rank: Vornado carries a Zacks Rank #3.

The combination of Vornado’s Zacks Rank #3 and positive ESP makes us reasonably confident of a positive surprise this season.

Note that, we caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

What's Driving Better-than-Expected Earnings?

The high-quality office assets concentrated in a few select high-rent, high barrier-to-entry geographic markets, place Vornado well for future growth. Besides these, due to its diverse tenant base and a strong balance sheet, the company is well poised for growth in the to-be-reported quarter.

On the leasing front, the New York business continues to post solid performance in same-store earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). As for the Washington D.C. market, though it will take some time for the economic recovery to transform into growth, the worst phase is anticipated to be over.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post a positive surprise this quarter:

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. HST has an Earnings ESP of +2.63% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report results on Apr 29.

Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will release results on May 2.

The Macerich Company MAC has an Earnings ESP of +2.35% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company will report first-quarter 2016 results on May 3.

Note: FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income. All earnings per share numbers presented in this write up represent FFO per share.

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MACERICH CO (MAC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
TAUBMAN CENTERS (TCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
HOST HOTEL&RSRT (HST): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
VORNADO RLTY TR (VNO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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