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USD/CAD Trading in a Bearish Correction Ahead of CAN Jobs Data

This is a follow up to previous post: USD/CAD - Look Out for a Meaningful Bearish Correction.


(usdcad 5/8, daily chart)

The pair traded lower today, breaking below the multi-month low of 1.0858. It is now trading towards a rising trendline from Sept. 2013, and the 200-day SMA. With the oscillators showing oversold condition in the daily chart, we should anticipate some intra-session support. 

However, once the oversold condition is resolved, look out for further downside risk toward
S1: 1.08  
S2: 1.0740
S3: 1.0650.

Let's look at the 4H chart:

(usdcad 5/8, 4H chart)

Oversold, Rebound scenario:
We see that the oscillators in the 4H chart are oversold as well. Perhaps the 1.08 handle will provide support while conditions are oversold in the daily and 4h chart.

Then, if there is a rebound, look for 1.09 as a possible resistance, up to a falling trendline maybe around 1.0933 a previous support pivot.

Bullish breakout scenario:
A break above 1.0950 and the falling trendline should challenge the bearish outlook, and a break above 1.10 should introduce a bullish one. In this bullish scenario, the resistance levels are:
R1: 1.1050,
R2: 1.1150, then
R3: 1.1277(2014-high).

Stochastic 80, RSI 60:
Also monitor the stochastic and RSI. If the 4H stochastic comes back to 80 and RSI back to 60, look for the market to stabilize. If it does, then we should anticipate another bearish attempt.

CAN Jobs data:
Last week we had US jobs data, which was mixed, and perhaps a bit concerning due to a continuing slide in participation rate. This Friday, we will get Canada's jobs data. If jobs data is as expected, or even slightly disappointing , traders might defend USD/CAD above 1.08 and we might get this rebound scenario. 


(source: forexfactory.com)

According forexfactory.com, the employment change for April is expected to be around 12.8K, down from the 42.9K in the previous month. In the case that this month's reading will beat forecast significantly, ie. 20K, then we might not get this rebound towards 1.09, 1.0930. Instead, we might get acceleration towards the next support level around 1.0740.

The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 6.9%. Dropping to 6.8% will also favor the bearish acceleration scenario instead of the rebound above 1.08 scenario.