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Why the OPEC meeting is likely to disappoint, in one chart

Iraq's oil minister, Jabar Ali al-Luaibi, arrives at a hotel ahead of a meeting of OPEC ministers in Vienna, Austria.

Oil investors, don’t get your hopes too high that OPEC will succeed in reaching an output deal at the highly anticipated meeting in Vienna on Wednesday.

The cartel could leave the Austrian capital empty-handed and potentially send new shock waves through the energy markets.

As this chart below from Goldman Sachs shows, the market is pricing in only a 30% chance that the 14 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will agree on measures to freeze or cut production at Wednesday’s summit. The chart is based on Brent oil futures LCOF7, -3.38% .

“If no deal is reached, our expectation of rising inventories through 1H17 would warrant prices averaging $45 a barrel through next summer,” the...