Nick Nasad
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EUR/CAD - Pair Getting Ready to Break Downward From Consolidation?

The EUR/CAD pair has been in a consolidation pattern throughout this week, after two weeks in which it fell fairly sharply.

The set-up here then is we are in a bearish market, and the expectation would be that price breaks to the downside in line with the prior bearish movement. Here's some technical reasons for the pair being bearish in this timeframe.
  1. Price broke down and has held below the 200-EMA (gray), telling us the general trend is downward.
  2. We had a break of a long-term upward sloping trendline (the black line - need to zoom out to daily to see its origin).
  3. There was a bearish crossover between the 21 (red) and 55 (blue) EMA's and the angle and separation between the 2 moving averages has showed good momentum.
  4. For the most part, price has used the 21-EMA as a resistance level, a good sign that any bullish attempts have been capped.
  5. Since RSI was oversold , there was a higher probability of a consolidation phase, which would resolve the oversold condition (that's what this week has been about, in my opinion).

Therefore, the conclusions here is that we are in a consolidation in a bearish phase for the pair, and we should expect the trendline from this consolidation to hold (otherwise, we have to revise exactly what's happening here). As long as the pair remains below the 1.3815 area, we still have a bearish tone to the pair.

A break out of the wedge pattern needs to break the 1.3670 support are, however a break there opens up downside targets include 1.3580, 1.3515 and 200-daily EMA.

- Nick