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USD/JPY - Pressure Remains on 103 After US Jobs Data

Today's US jobs data was slightly positive. The NFP was in-line or slightly above expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 6.3%, despite forecast that it would rise to 6.4%. The caveat continues to be the 35-year low in participation rate, as it held at April's reading of 68.2%.

USD/JPY Reaction:


(usdjpy 4h chart, 6/6)

Bullish Outlook:
The USD/JPY was bullish since finding support at 100.85 in May. It stalled at channel resistance ahead of the NFP, but found support from the previous resistance pivot at 102.14. 

The 4H RSI held above 40 after going above 70. This reflects maintenance of bullish momentum. Above the current high of 102.80, there is strong resistance around 103. The NFP data today may not be THAT impressive to give USD/JPY fuel to push through 103, but it should at least put the focus on that level in the very short-term.

A break above 103 can revive a bullish outlook, first towards a resistance pivot at 104.11, then the 2014-high around 105.44.

Failure:
This bullish outlook fails if price is dragged down below 102 and breaks below the rising channel support. Also the RSI falling below 40 accompanying this price action would reflect a loss of bullish momentum. The focus at that point would be back toward the 100.85 May-low to the 100.75 2014-low.