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GBP/JPY Approaching Critical Resistance at 188.00

The GBP/JPy has been climbing throughout August and now into November. Looking at the daily chart we can see that while the price action in the past month has been bullish, the mode has been one of consolidation.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart 11/10

(click to enlarge)

In this consolidation mode for the medium-term (since June), there is a bearish bias, especially if price can hold under 188.00. Also, if the RSI can hold below 60 for the most part, the momentum is still building downwards. 

In the short-term, as price approaches 188.00, we should anticipate some resistance and possible pullback towards the 184.00 handle, with possibility of continuing to the September low just above 180. This scenario would all fit in the consolidation mode of the pair, so its really a play if you believe GBP/JPY is, in the medium-term, going to continue the mode shown since June. Forecasting a break below 180.00 however is not within the consolidation mode.

Now, if price breaks above 188.00, GBP/JPY loses the bearish bias. It would essentially be sideways with some short-term bullish bias towards the 2015-highs in the 194-196 area. I would like to see more confirmation of price being able to hold above 188.00 before considering the upside towards those highs. For now, I am slightly bearish especially here around 188.00 with at least a bearish target of 184.00.