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UNG could be a buy around 7.30-7.50

United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) is an index that tracks natural gas prices in the US (tracked at the Henry Hub, Louisiana). As we can see in the daily chart, it has turned from a prevailing bearish market into a sideways one in 2016.

UNG weekly chart


(click to enlarge)

Still bearish:
- In the long-term perspective, UNG is still bearish.
- Price is below the 200-, 100-, and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs). 
- The RSI is also still under 60, which shows maintenance of the bearish momentum heading into 2016.
- But if we look at the medium-term, we can see the potential of a price bottom.

Bullish reversal attempt:

- The daily chart shows the bullish reversal attempt in the medium-term going against the bearish trend in the long-term.
- Some key signals are:
1) Price has broke above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs - if these SMAs start acting like support, we are likely seeing a bullish reversal.
2) The RSI has pushed to 70, which shows initiation of bullish momentum. It at least killed the bearish momentum. Furthermore, the RSI has held above 40 after pushing above 70, which shows maintenance or development of the bullish momentum. 
3) Finally, the fact that price has been making higher highs and higher lows since March is a sign that the market is attempting to start a bullish trend.

Key support:
- Price has retreated since July.
- The 7.00-7.50 area might be key support. 
- This area involves the 100-day SMA, and a previous support/resistance pivot area. 
- A bullish market should hold here, which would keep a bullish outlook in the short to medium-term, at least towards the 2016 high around 9.30.