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USD/JPY Forms Mini-Price Top after the NFP; the Importance 102

The US Non-Farm Payroll report today disappointed relative to forecast. It showed 209K jobs added in July, fewer than the 231K average forecast. June's print was revised up to 298K from 288K. This is still a decent report despite missing expectations. Unemployment rate edged up to 6.2% from 6.1%. 

The data should not be alarming in terms of its impact on the Fed's rate hike schedule - still for mid-2015. However, it might not be strong enough to help USD keep its current strength. As you can see in the 1H chart below, the softer jobs report today helped the market complete a price top that has been forming since the FOMC statement on Wednesday.

(usdjpy 1h chart)

The break below 102.70 opens up the 102.45 area first, which is where the 100-hour SMA is. It would also be the conventional range breakout projection, taking the width of the range and projecting it into the direction of the breakout from the broken range support/resistance. If there is a near-term pullback, the bearish outlook is valid as long as price holds under 102.90, A break above that is likely returning the market to the bullish mode without much retracement.

Below that, we should limit any bearish outlook in the short-term to 102. We see the 200-hour hovering just above 102. But if we look at the daily chart below, we also see that the 200-, 100-, 50-day SMAs are all clustered around 102. Therefore, if this week's breakout of the 2014 descending triangle is to extend, price should hold above 102 to show bullish bias. 

Otherwise, if price dips below 101.90, it is likely returning the focus toward the 101.10 low in July, and then the 100.75 low on the year.

(usdjpy daily chart 8/1)